Posted by
Kukee on Wednesday, January 14, 2009 12:03:27 PM
In the early 1900s, George Ellery Hale believed that the sunspots reversed polarity with each cycle, and with the invention of the solar magnetograph in 1951 we are able to measure those reversals. Using the magnetograph, scientists can accurately determine when the one Schwabe cycle ends and the next cycle begins. That is how we know that Cycle 23 started in March 1996 and how we know that Cycle 24 has not ramped up yet. When the declining sunspot activity of Cycle 23 drops below the rising sunspot activity of Cycle 24 then the powers that be will declare the start of Cycle 24.
Cycle 23 sunspots are deemed as negative polarity sunspots. Cycle 24 sunspot will conversely be positive polarity sunspots. The cause of the polarity reversal is still being investigated after 50 plus years of intense study by astrophysicists and many others. They believe that the cause is due to the circulation of the sun’s surface material. The outer layer of the sun is viscous plasma that rotates moves around the sun, faster at the solar-equator and slower at the solar-poles. This is what drives the sunspots around the sun’s surface. The flow of the surface material has been calculated and here is the equation for all you techi-types:
[14.37 – 2.33 * SIN2(latitude) – 1.56 * SIN4(latitude)] degrees per day.
When the sun’s surface material reaches the solar-poles it drops below the surface to a depth of about 20,000 kilometers and flows back to the solar equator where it resurfaces. This circulation takes about 40 years to complete. It is believed that the alternating polarity of sunspots is related to this circulation.
The actual creation of sunspots is believed to be due to the difference in the spin velocities of the Sun’s outer layers (Chromosphere and Convection Zone) and the inner layers (Radiative Zone and the Core). The interface between the Convection Zone and the Radiative Zone is hotter than the immediate surrounding area and is due to the friction cause by the shearing action of this very dense matter. It is believed that the greater the difference between the rotational velocities of the Convection and Radiative zones, the more intense the magnetic flux will be. The more intense the magnetic flux the more sunspots. The measure of the magnetic flux density of the sun is called the Solar Dynamo Amplitude index (SODA Index).
Here is a graph of the SODA over the past 140 years:
Beginning in 1900 the SODA increased dramatically until the 1960s where it dropped. This was just in time for the unset of ‘GLOBAL COOLING -The COMING ICE AGE’ era, when temperature on the earth fell. From 1964 through 1996 the SODA index rose again, but has subsequently dropped, especially in 2005. Since that time the SODA has fallen to levels close to the early 1900s.
Think of it this way. The greater the SODA index, the more sunspots. The more sunspots, the hotter Earth, Venus, Mars, Jupiter and Saturn get. So what does all this have to do with the Hale cycle?
Well, nothing directly, but you needed this information before I quickly explain what the Hale cycle brings us. Since the polarity of the sunspots alternate in a 22 year cycle (approximately ½ of the solar surface material circulation), the polarity of the magnetic flux generated by the solar events (sunspots and flares) alternate likewise. Some very smart people, have discovered that positive sunspots do not divert cosmic radiation as affectively as negative sunspots. If that is true then during the positive sunspot cycles (even numbered cycles) the earth should be cloudier, cooler, and moister than during the negative sunspot cycles.
Well, well, well! Guess what? That is exactly what has been discovered. Scientists in South Africa who were trying to predict the water requirements found that the amount of rain received over a hundred years of so came in 21-22 year cycles! (My goodness, Joseph’s dream was right about the length of the drought. God is so smart!) Another set of scientist discovered that the rate of change in earth’s temperature fluctuate in a 22 year cycle. By golly, our scientists ARE smarter than the average ex-vice president and all his horde of political activist. Just think, all this because the sun rotates and circulates.
Now for a final point; another very smart scientist and mathematician (that is a person who knows about numbers and equations for all you liberals) developed a formula to predict the approximate sunspot cycle strength and polarity. M.A. Vukcevic found that the number of sunspots in a cycle is related to the orbital period of Jupiter (11.862 years), the Jupiter-Saturn alignment (19.859 years), and the angular shift of the Jupiter-Saturn alignment. He determined the starting point of his formula to be in 1941 when Jupiter, Saturn, and Uranus aligned. There is a phase shift in the formula that takes place every 110 to 120 years. It has been speculated that this is related to the Jupiter-Saturn inequality. I have put his formula together with the actual sunspot activity over the last 250 years and here is is:
Isn’t it amazing how closely the planetary alignment’s are to the output of the sun? Hmmm, it makes you wonder, is there a connection?